September 10, 2020


Regional Market Trends

 

Changes in bookable flights year-over-year

  • The number of bookable flights observed this week is 50% below the number offered for the same week last year; respectively 75% below in APAC, 55% below in EMEA and 40% below in the AMRS.
  • While the trend progressively improves and shows a ramp-up leading to similar volumes year-over-year, the date keeps moving in time and now shows the week of 29 October 2020 for most regions.
  • Between the weeks of 29 October 2020 and 4 March 2021, on average, the volume reaches 110% of what was observed during the same period last year. The trend remains lower in APAC by 10% compared to the previous year, decreases by 5% in EMEA and increases by 25% in the AMRS.

 

Changes in prices year-over-year

  • Regarding prices, continuing the trend of the past three weeks, airfares globally remain at the same level compared to the same period last year for the weeks of 29 October 2020 to 4 March 2021, with some variations per region.
  • Airfare price trends are higher by 10% in Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa. The Americas‘ trend shows a shift early November but decreases again, reaching an average of -5% compared to the same weeks the prior year.

 

Previous regional market trends


August 20, 2020

August 20, 2020


Regional Market Trends

 

Changes in bookable flights year-over-year

  • We see a significant drop of bookable flights by 55% for departure dates the week of 20 August 2020 compared to the same period last year. Regionally such a drop accounts for 75% in Asia Pacific, 60% in Europe, Middle East and Africa, and 45% in the Americas. It represents a 5-p.p. improvement compared to our observations three weeks ago, and a 30-p.p. improvement with our initial observations mid-April.
  • Three weeks ago, we were observing bookable flights returning to a similar volume than in 2019 by September 2020, with a ramp-up starting the week of 3 September 2020. Today, such return is moved to the week of 8 October 2020. Between the weeks of 8 October 2020 and 21 February 2021, on average, the volume reaches 115% of what was observed during the same period last year. The APAC trend remains lower compared to the previous year by 15% for APAC, and higher by 10% EMEA and 30% for the AMRS.

 

Changes in prices year-over-year

  • For the first time since our initial observations, prices globally are now back to the same level as in 2019 for the weeks of 8 October 2020 to 21 February 2021 compared to the same period last year. APAC continues to show an average price increase of 10%, while EMEA and the AMRS show similar prices compared to the same period the previous year.


July 30, 2020

July 30, 2020


Regional Market Trends

 

Changes in bookable flights year-over-year

  • We see a significant drop of bookable flights by 60% for departure dates the week of 30 July 2020 compared to the same period last year. Regionally such a drop accounts for 75% in Asia Pacific, 60% in Europe, Middle East and Africa, and 45% in the Americas. It represents a 10-p.p. improvement compared to our observations three weeks ago, respectively 15-p.p. improvement for EMEA, 15-p.p. improvement for AMRS, none for APAC.
  • The number of bookable flights returns to a similar volume than 2019 between the weeks of 3 and 17 September 2020. The number of bookable flights for the week of 3 September 2020 to 21 January 2021, compared to the same period last year, is even higher as now 110% globally. The APAC trend remains lower compared to the previous year by 15% for APAC, nil for EMEA and 120% for the AMRS.

 

Changes in prices year-over-year

  • Prices remain globally lower than in the same period in 2019, by 10%. APAC shows an average price increase of 10%, EMEA no variation and the AMRS a 20% decrease compared to the same period the previous year.


July 8, 2020

July 8, 2020


Regional Market Trends

 

Changes in bookable flights year-over-year

  • We see a significant drop of bookable flights by 70% for departure dates the week of 9 July 2020 compared to the same period last year. Regionally such a drop accounts for 75% in Asia Pacific, 75% in Europe, Middle East and Africa, and 60% in the Americas.
  • Two weeks ago, we were observing bookable flights returning to a similar volume than 2019 by the week of 6 August 2020. Similar trends were observed for the domestic and international markets of Europe, but the timeline gap was wider as our initial April observations were showing a return to a similar number of bookable flights the week of 25 June and 11 June respectively and our latest insights now show the week of 3 September 2020. Such observation remains unchanged today.
  • The number of bookable flights for the week of 6 August to 31 December 2020, compared to the same period last year, remains below by 20% for Asia Pacific, >10% for EMEA, and is now above by 5% for the Americas.

 

Changes in prices year-over-year

  • Prices remain globally lower than the same period in 2019, by 8%, even after 6 August 2020, when the number of bookable flights starts to go up. Europe, Middle East and Africa show a decrease in prices by 8%, the Americas 10%, Asia Pacific goes up by 4% compared to the same period the previous year.


June 24, 2020

June 24, 2020


Regional Market Trends

 

Changes in bookable flights year-over-year

  • We see a significant drop of bookable flights falling by 80% for departure dates the week of 25 June 2020 compared to the same period last year. Regionally such a drop accounts for >80% in Asia Pacific, >85% in Europe, Middle East and Africa, and >70% in the Americas. These trends remain unchanged since our first observations back in April.
  • Two months ago, we were observing bookable flights returning to a similar volume than 2019 by 9 of July, with a ramp-up starting the week of 2 July 2020. Today, such return is moved back to the week of 6 August 2020 and on average below by >10% for the week of 6 August to 24 December 2020 compared to the same period last year. Regionally it shows a decrease of 20% in Asia Pacific, 15% in Europe, Middle East and Africa and >5% in the Americas compared to the same period the previous year.
  • A similar number of bookable flights is not observed for the rest of 2020 and numbers for each region remain lower on average by 5% compared to our observations two weeks ago.

 

Changes in prices year-over-year

  • Prices remain globally lower than the same period in 2019, by 9%, even after 6 August 2020, when the number of bookable flights starts to go up. Europe, Middle East and Africa show a decrease in prices by 8%, the Americas 10%, Asia Pacific is flat compared to the same period the previous year. These trends remain unchanged since our first observations back in April.


June 10, 2020

June 10, 2020


Regional Market Trends

 

Changes in bookable flights year-over-year

  • We see a significant drop of bookable flights falling by >80% for departure dates the week of 11 June 2020 compared to the same period last year. Regionally such a drop accounts for >80% in Asia Pacific, >85% in Europe, Middle East and Africa, and >70% in the Americas. Such market trends remain similar to those observed two weeks ago.
  • In our previous observations, bookable fights were returning to a similar number observed in 2019 by mid-July, with a ramp-up starting the week of 2 July 2020. Now we see bookable flights return to a close-to-normal level mid-July but below by >5% decrease for the week of 9 July to 26 November 2020 compared to the same period last year. Regionally it shows a decrease of 12% in Asia Pacific, 7% in Europe, Middle East and Africa and 5% in the Americas compared to the same period the previous year.

 

Changes in prices year-over-year

  • Prices remain globally lower than the same period in 2019, by 9%, even after mid-July. Europe, Middle East and Africa show a decrease in prices by 8%, the Americas 10%, Asia Pacific is flat compared to the same period the previous year.


May 20, 2020

May 20, 2020


Regional Market Trends

 

Changes in bookable flights year-over-year

  • We see a drop of bookable flights observed the week of 14 May 2020 for departure dates the week of 21 May 2020 compared to the same period last year. Regionally such a drop accounts for >80% in Asia Pacific, >90% in Europe, Middle East and Africa, and >75% in the Americas. Such market trends remain similar to those observed two weeks ago.
  • Bookable flights return to a normal level mid-July, with similar numbers for the week of 9 July to 26 November 2020 compared to the same period last year. Regionally it shows a decrease of 5% in Asia Pacific, 2% in Europe, Middle East and Africa and a flat curve for the Americas compared to the same period the previous year.
  • In our previous observations, bookable fights were returning to a similar number observed in 2019 by mid-July, with a progressive ramp-up observed starting from the week of 28 May. Now the ramp-up stars the week of 2 July 2020 in Asia Pacific and the Americas, and early June in Europe, Middle East and Africa.

 

Changes in prices year-over-year

  • Prices remain globally lower than the same period in 2019, by 9%, even after mid-July, when the number of bookable flights goes back to normal. Europe, Middle East and Africa show a decrease in prices by 14%, the Americas 9%, Asia Pacific is flat compared to the same period the previous year.


May 6, 2020


May 6, 2020


Changes in bookable flights year-over-year

  • We see a drop of bookable flights observed the week of 30 April 2020 for departure dates the week of 7 May 2020 compared to the same period last year. Regionally such a drop accounts for >80% in Asia Pacific, >90% in Europe, Middle East and Africa, and >75% in the Americas. Such market trends remain similar to those observed two weeks ago.
  • Bookable flights return to a normal level mid-July, with a 5% increase globally from the week of 9 July to 29 October 2020. Regionally it shows an increase of 5% in Europe, Middle East and Africa, an increase of 6% in the Americas and 2% in Asia Pacific.

 

Changes in prices year-over-year

  • Prices remain globally lower than the same period in 2019, by 9%, even after mid-July, when the number of bookable flights goes back to normal. Europe, Middle East and Africa show a decrease in prices by 18%, the Americas 10%, Asia Pacific is flat or slightly higher compared to the same period the previous year.


April 22, 2020


April 22, 2020


Changes in bookable flights year-over-year

We see a significant drop of bookable flights observed the week of 16 April 2020 for departure dates the week of 23 April 2020 compared to the same period last year.

  • Regionally such a drop accounts for 83% in Asia Pacific, 92,1% in Europe, Middle East and Africa, and 79,9% in the Americas.

Starting from the week of 11 June, bookable fights return to a similar number observed in 2019, with a 2% increase globally from the week of 11 June to 15 October 2020, tending to demonstrate the positive outlook the global aviation may be foreseeing.

  • Regionally it shows an increase of 6% in Europe, Middle East and Africa, an increase of 2% in the Americas and a flat curve in Asia Pacific with a nil percentage.

 

Changes in prices year-over-year

Looking at the next six months, the average price of the lowest fares across Economy, Premium Economy and Business classes, is not following standard patterns.

  • The deepest drop in prices is observed the week of 16 April 2020 compared to the previous year and is driven by the Americas.

Even after the week of 11 June 2020 when the number of bookable flights goes back to normal, prices remain globally lower than the same period in 2019, by 9,7%.

  • Europe, Middle East and Africa show a decrease in prices by 15% while the Americas decrease by 8,9%. Asia Pacific airlines slightly rebound better still with a 1,7% drop in prices compared to the same period the previous year.

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Our unique market trends are built with a rich sample of bookable airfares collected from 835 traffic-intensive airport pairs worldwide and 72 major carriers. These airfares are observed week after week for a six-month departure window; this will remain consistent during the entire period of observations to secure its insights accuracy. Flights and prices are observed from a region to all destinations worldwide. The data visualisation tool used for those insights comes with an additional dataset even richer in content as it features bookable airfares collected from more than 77,000 traffic-intensive airport pairs worldwide and over 360 carriers.

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